Energy, pessimistic managers: "Zero emissions target possible no earlier than 2057"

THE energy sector manager they have very different ideas about when the goal will be achieved globally “Zero emissions”. On the one hand, 42% expect the goal to be possible by 2050, on the other 1 in 4 think it will not be before 2070. On average, however, managers believe that the “net zero” state cannot be achieved. reach before 2057. This is reported by the second Annual Energy Report from Bain & Company which analyzed the sentiment of over a thousand professionals distributed in 45 countries, noting many fears related to the path of the energy transition in light of the growing difficulties of the current economic and political context.

“Today – underlines Roberto Prioreschi, Bain & Company managing partner Italy and Turkey – sector managers predict a 28% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. On average, however, they believe that net zero will not be reached until 2057. Companies will allocate on average 23% of capital to new initiatives businesses in support and response to the energy transition, compared to the 16% forecast in 2020. This means that in just one year, companies have decided to allocate over 40% more of their resources to this path: the acceleration can be glimpsed , but we must move decisively from planning to implementation ”.

The report indicates that some segments of the industry are particularly lagging behind on this front. The case of the plastic: At the current rate, the research denounces, only 10-14% will be recycled by 2030, well below the targets. Although this market has enormous growth potential, evidence shows that recycled plastics by 2030 represent less than 15% of total supply; this misalignment between supply and demand could cause prices to rise.

“The profound revision of the carbon footprint will ensure that companies in the energy sector will be materially different by 2030. The implications of this transformation are significant, as are the opportunities: three out of four managers believe that by 2030 they will manage new businesses, to complement (62%) or as a replacement (10%) of the one currently considered the main one ”, he comments Alessandro Cadei, EMEA manager of the energy and utility sector in Bain.

The managers also indicated the 7 levers that will have the greatest impact on its business by 2030: renewable energies (79%), biological and regenerative agricultural practices (77%), circularity (75%), energy storage (73%), artificial intelligence (67%), use and storage of carbon (63%), bio-based products (60%). But what is the impact of these innovations on the operations of companies?

“As highlighted by the report, the changes linked to the energy transition require a profound revision of the operating model and the skills of the players in the sector. This will lead to significant reviews of the portfolio strategy, leading to the disposal of assets not in line with ESG criteria or at risk of high stranded costs. Not only that: these transformations will lead to an evolution of the M&A strategy from scope deal to scale deal, profoundly redefining the competitive landscape from now to 2025. Furthermore, the conflict in Ukraine forces companies in the sector to prioritize resilience over reduction. costs, ”he adds I fall.

“In Italy – he concludes Roberto Prioreschi – we suffer from the historical lack of a true energy industrial plan. It is therefore crucial for our country to start planning and investing continuously, aligning regulatory frameworks and business actions, to accelerate and therefore achieve independence and energy transition. In this direction, we are pleased to announce that from this year we constantly monitor and report the reduction of emissions from our offices in Milan and Rome. This is a further step to make a concrete contribution to the energy transition path of this country “.

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