• May 28, 2023

Weather forecast, the suffocating heat continues. What summer awaits us?

(iLMeteo.it) – We all realized it, it’s too hot! We are only in June and we are about to experience the third African heat wave after the two that arrived early in the month of May. We are struggling with yet another climatic weather madness, a clear sign that something at the atmospheric level has broken due to increasingly pressing global warming. Let’s take a step back; this year the summer season started a month early. And it is not just an impression, the climatic data recorded and analyzed by the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) of the CNR of Bologna take care of highlighting how May 2022 closed nationally with an anomaly of temperature of + 1.83 ° C compared to the 1991/2020 average, that is compared to the warmest thirty years ever recorded since the beginning of the surveys.


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This value brings the month of May just ended to second place after that of 2003, which closed with an anomaly of + 1.87 ° C. Put simply, an extremely hot month has just ended, characterized by two hot waves with temperatures well over 30 ° C, as if we were already in the middle of July. Summer actually ate a spring month. The causes are to be found in the particular synoptic structure that has repeatedly characterized the European chessboard. Dominating the scene was the infamous African anticyclone (in spite of the milder anticyclone of the Azores) which continued to send very hot and humid air masses of sub-tropical origin over the Mediterranean basin. Now that we are in mid-June, the situation has not changed, quite the contrary. We are touching above average temperatures of almost 3/4 ° C and a third African heat wave is imminent. As an example, suffice it to say that in Milan or Rome in mid-June the reference average for the maximum values ​​is 25/26 ° C, yet in the next few days they will easily exceed 32 ° C. With these premises, what prospects can there be for a summer that, calendar in hand, has yet to begin (the start is scheduled for Tuesday 21 June, with the solstice)?

Mattia Gussoni, meteorologist of the site www.iLMeteo.it reports that in order to answer this question we must rely on the new climate projections over the long term (July and August): a decidedly unreliable weather and mere object of study and interest for curious and enthusiasts, seasonal projections have now become a valid tool for scientific prognosis, with decisive contributions in longer-term climate assessment. In Europe, the leader in the sector is the European Center for Medium-term Meteorological Forecasting, ECMWF, in Reading (UK).

Well, next July could be almost “tropical” due to the constant presence of a vast high pressure field of African origin which is destined to impose itself more and more significantly on the Mediterranean basin: if this were to be confirmed, we expect thermal values ​​up to + 2/3 ° C above the reference climatic averages. This could probably translate into new heat waves arriving from Africa, with peaks ready to splash well over 35 ° C especially in Valpadana, on the inland areas of the two major islands and on most of the central-southern peninsular.

The downside of this particular synoptic condition is the risk of extreme weather events. This is the fundamental point: with the heat the potential energy involved also increases and above all the thermal contrasts are particularly enhanced, creating a deadly mix for the development of massive storm cells, even up to 10/15 km high. In particular, the greatest risks arise when, after a heat wave in the lower layers of the atmosphere, large quantities of humidity and heat stagnate. Subsequently, at the first fresh and unstable gust at high altitude (usually downhill from Northern Europe), the convective motions (hot air rising) favor the genesis of particularly violent thunderstorms, with a high risk of hailstorms and in some cases, more rare, even of tornadoes. Even for August the news is not good. The latest projection confirms a trend voted to heat also for the key month of the Italian holidays: it seems that we will have to deal with temperatures well above the average of around + 2 ° C: consequently, it is reasonable to expect another very hot month , especially in the Center-North.


Wednesday 15. In the north: sunny, but with some heat storms Alps and locally Prealps. Center: thunderstorms over the Apennines and nearby areas. In the south: clear or partly cloudy skies.

Thursday 16. In the north: isolated thunderstorms in the Triveneto Alps, sun and heat on the rise elsewhere. In the center: some thunderstorms between Abruzzo, Molise and Lazio, sun elsewhere. South: lots of sun.

Friday 17. In the north: sun and intense heat. In the center: afternoon thunderstorms between L’Aquila, Frosinone and Isernino, sun elsewhere. South: sunny, pleasantly warm.

Trend. weekend full of sun and heat at times intense.


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